Copper and aluminum prices may fall more than 10% by year’s end amid ongoing weakness in Chinese demand that’s unlikely to show any recovery in 2016, according to Goldman Sachs Group.

The bank lowered its 12-month outlook for copper on the London Metal Exchange to $4 000 a metric ton from $4 500 a ton, and cut its aluminum forecast to $1 350 a ton from $1 550 a ton, analysts including Max Layton wrote in a note dated February 8.

“We now anticipate no material recovery in Chinese metals demand growth in 2016,” the analysts wrote. China’s transition from metals-intensive, investment-led growth “is likely to be permanent,” they said, while also citing an overhang of property inventory and the country’s high debt levels as challenging for demand in the world’s top commodities consuming nation…